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The electorate seems to have been swayed by the notion that the American president's financial support would disappear if Milei did not win.
In his 1987 bestseller The Art of the Deal, Donald Trump famously wrote, "The dollar always talks in the end." The surprising victory of Javier Milei in Argentina's midterm elections, following a $40 billion bailout from Trump, appears to lend credence to that statement.
The U.S. president had threatened to withdraw support from his South American ally if the radical libertarian performed poorly in the critical legislative vote on Sunday, a result that was widely anticipated. "If he doesn’t win, we’re gone," Trump stated when the long-haired Argentine president visited Washington earlier this month to appeal for economic assistance.
Milei had been facing mounting political challenges in recent months. Widespread public frustration with Argentina’s sluggish economy led to market volatility and a significant defeat in the Buenos Aires provincial election in September. In the wake of that humbling loss, Trump intervened, offering a $20 billion (£15 billion) currency swap agreement and an additional $20 billion to support what he described as a "dying" economy. However, the U.S. president made it clear that this "generosity" was conditional on Milei achieving a decisive win on Sunday.
Opponents of Milei decried Trump's move as a flagrant interference in Argentina's democratic process through his direct message to the electorate. Some analysts predicted a backlash against Trump, similar to what occurred in neighboring Brazil after Washington's clumsy efforts to influence the coup trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Yet, on Sunday night, there was little evidence of any voter retaliation against Trump's intervention. On the contrary, some observers speculated that the high-stakes gamble might have successfully influenced the outcome.
Diego Guelar, an Argentinian politician and former ambassador to the U.S. and China, expressed his unease with how Trump had warned voters "they had to vote for his friend [Milei] or he would abandon them." Despite finding the U.S. president's "direct intervention" to be "awful," Guelar believed it had been effective, as voters seemed to accept "the need for American assistance" while blaming the economic crisis on the opposition.
Brian Winter, an expert on Argentina and the editor of Americas Quarterly magazine, remarked, “It has the appearance of a masterstroke by Donald Trump. He threw a lifeline to somebody who was drowning at just the right moment.”
Milei's libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances), secured nearly 41% of the vote—a result considerably better than anticipated after a difficult period marked by corruption scandals and a deepening economic crisis. His Peronist rivals received 32%. In response to the news, Argentina’s bonds, stocks, and its currency, the peso, all surged on Monday as Milei celebrated the result as a validation of his two-year "shock therapy" agenda.
Winter noted that he was still assessing the precise impact of Trump’s $40 billion rescue package and pre-election warning on the final vote count. The result also highlighted that many voters still held the Peronists responsible for years of economic turmoil, even as their disillusionment with Milei grew.
“But the way politics works, Trump will get credit for this,” Winter predicted. “It looks like a bold bet – and not just a bold bet. The appearance, at least, is that he [Milei] showed the value of being an ally to Donald Trump. And this is a White House that is making more use of carrots and sticks in Latin America than any White House in probably 50 years.”
Trump’s unusually intense focus on Latin America may not be winning him many friends across the region, aside from Milei’s movement. His policies have included a highly controversial naval buildup off the coast of Venezuela, accusing Mexican leaders of ties to drug cartels, threatening to forcibly "take back" the Panama Canal, and imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil.
Nonetheless, Winter believes these actions are, for better or worse, having an effect. “He has helped cajole the Mexicans into a more active approach on security and migration. He has convinced the Panamanians to push the Chinese out of the proximity of the canal. He appears to have backtracked on a failing strategy in Brazil – and now both sides are talking about a significant deal on rare earths, critical minerals and potentially other areas.”
Winter acknowledged that Trump’s distinctly 19th-century-style doctrine—offering "rescue packages and loans for his friends and gunboat diplomacy for his enemies"—could easily backfire in the long run. “But for now, most of them are producing results.”
The foremost beneficiary is Milei, now Trump's closest ally in the region. As the scale of his victory became clear on Sunday, he took to X to thank his North American backer.
“You are a great friend of the Argentine Republic,” Argentina’s president told Trump, concluding with the rallying cry they now have in common: Maga.
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